The Multiple Myeloma Research Consortium (MMRC) sent me a press release, touting the fact that, “The MMRC has opened more than 40 Phase I and Phase II clinical trials of both novel compounds and combination approaches that are thought to be active against high-priority targets.”
Impressive! The group has backed studies involving elotuzumab, Millennium’s oral proteasome inhibitor, MLN9708, Kyprolis and panobinostat, to name just a few.
All I can say is, “THANK YOU!”
Speaking of elotuzumab, the International Myeloma Foundation (IMF) sent me information about a pair of elotuzumab studies which are currently enrolling:
Clinical Trials: Eloquent I and II
Moving on, a large study done in the UK came to the conclusion that organic food is no better for us than the mass produced milk, meet and produce found on grocer’s shelves.
Dr. Joseph Mercola, a well known but controversial nutritional expert, strongly disagrees with these findings. CLICK HERE to watch a video and/or read his in-depth report debunking the study.
Finally, I was surprised to learn that an American has a 1 in 159 chance to develop multiple myeloma over the course of their lifetime. Doesn’t that seem high?
As Carol, a reader who forwarded me the information wrote: “Yikes!”
Feel good and keep smiling! Pat
September 15th, 2012 at 3:11 pm
“Finally, I was surprised to learn that an American has a 1 in 159 chance to develop multiple myeloma over the course of their lifetime. Doesn’t that seem high?”
Yeah…I’d say WAAAAAYYYYY too high. Just doing the quick and dirty math of approximately 20,000 newly dx patients each year in the U.S. and dividing that into the 100 million or so adults of “MM age” that would make it a chance of 1 in 5000…what other mitigating factors are at play I dunno…but just basic math based on population guesstimates suggests 1 in 159 chance is WAY OFF!!
Steve
September 15th, 2012 at 5:34 pm
But wait…there’s more.
Tracing the source (?) of the “1 in 159″ number we find it on a page from the American Cancer Institute: “Multiple myeloma is a relatively uncommon cancer. In the United States, the lifetime risk of getting multiple myeloma is 1 in 159 (0.63%).”
Notice the decimal percent on the end…i.e. a lifetime chance of less than one percent.
That sort of puts it in a different light for me…at least from when first read above without the decial number on the end. Still, even at 0.63% it somehow “feels” a tad high….it would be interesting to know the ACI’s derivation of the reviwed cohort from which they arrived at the 159. Or then again….maybe not….after all, as doesn’t the mantra go…I am not a statistic.
Steve
September 15th, 2012 at 7:34 pm
Wow! You guys are on this! Someone’s paying attention! I got the stat from Carol after she forwarded me one of those basic, “institutional bios;” you know, the type every larger cancer center puts-out. In it, Dr. Jewel Johl quotes the source you found, Steve.
“According to the American Cancer Society, in the United States alone the lifetime risk of developing multiple myeloma is 1 in 159 and for 2012 it is estimated that about 20,000 people will be diagnosed with about 10,000 deaths expected.”
Here is a link to the piece:
http://diablovalleyoncology.blogspot.com/2012/09/mysterious-multiple-myeloma.html
So… I guess the fact checker finds the statement to be “true!” That is, unless the American Cancer Society’s figures are off, then its not. Because it sounds too high to me, too. Glad we cleared that up!
September 16th, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Pat. I calculate 7 cases per 100000 persons in the USA.
Don’t believe everything govt says. Threes is probably some politics going on.
I could be off a lot. I am watching my colts.
1
September 16th, 2012 at 3:07 pm
I would say “high” also, as it sounds just a little bit less of a chance of getting MM as being born with autism!
September 16th, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Why should we really care, anyway? We already have it! Go Colts! Why not? Packers don’t play today…
September 17th, 2012 at 7:45 pm
I’m not sure what the odds are of being born with autism. Interesting contrast. Any idea what the percentages are?
September 18th, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Actually, those odds look pretty reasonable but you need to take into account that they’re *lifetime* odds. IANAS (I am not a statistician, as you’re about to discover) but we can do a back-of-the-envelope calculation to get an idea. Use Steve’s estimate of 20,000 cases/yr and 100 million susceptible adults in our population. Now consider that a person is susceptible for 40 years – say, from 35 to 75. (Use 40 to 80 if you like; same result.) Over those 40 years, 40 X 20,000 people will be diagnosed – that is, 800,000 – and 800,000 divided by 100 million is .8% – that is, 1 in 125 – very close to the 1 in 159 that Pat cited.
There’s another way to do it – Take the odds of making it through a year *without* getting MM, which is (100 million – 20,000)/(100 million). To get the odds of making it through a second year, multiply times itself. For a third year, multiply again, etc etc until you’ve raised this number to the fortieth power and you’ve made it through 40 years. (Are you still with me? I used logs to do the multiplication; it was easier.) The answer comes out basically the same. For more about this type of calculation, look up “Birthday Problem” in Wikipedia. Isn’t math wonderful?
September 19th, 2012 at 9:38 am
Not a statistician? Looks like you did a pretty darn good job to me! Thanks for helping us “run the numbers!”